29th Young Energy Economists & Engineers Seminar - YEEES Ghent 2022, Ghent (Belgium). 12-13 May 2022
Summary:
Energy planning deals with the long life of energy investments, which usually last between 20 and 50 years. Such a long period of time gives rise to many uncertainties, which need to be addressed correctly so that the best possible decisions are taken. However, when uncertainty is considered in energy planning, it is usually done on a limited basis. Robust optimisation can deal with deep uncertainties, but its application is not frequent in energy planning. Moreover, it typically only considers a few uncertain parameters and yields too conservative results. This paper rethinks the conceptual framework around robustness and flexibility. These concepts are fundamental in treating uncertainty, but they are often confused in the literature. A robust optimisation methodology is applied in a novel way to an energy planning dynamic model for dealing with uncertainties, the Dynamic Energy MOdel (DEMO). A case of study for the Spanish energy system is presented, analysing the possibility of meeting Spain's carbon budget to reach the 1.5ºC target when different degrees of protection against uncertainties are considered. Merits and limits of this methodology are pointed out, and future steps in its application are discussed.
Spanish layman's summary:
Una metodología de optimización robusta se aplica de forma novedosa a un modelo dinámico de planificación energética (DEMO) para tratar las incertidumbres. Un caso de estudio analiza el cumplimiento del presupuesto de carbono de España para el objetivo de 1,5ºC para diferentes grados de protección.
English layman's summary:
A robust optimisation methodology is applied in a novel way to an energy planning dynamic model for dealing with uncertainties, the Dynamic Energy MOdel (DEMO). A case study analyses the possibility of meeting Spain's carbon budget to reach the 1.5ºC target for different degrees of protection.
Keywords: Energy planning models, uncertainty, robustness, flexibility, carbon budget.
Publication date: 2022-05-12.
Citation:
A.F. Rodríguez Matas, P. Linares, J.C. Romero, M. Pérez-Bravo, A novel application of a robust and flexible decision-making methodology to a dynamic model of strategic energy planning, 29th Young Energy Economists & Engineers Seminar - YEEES Ghent 2022, Ghent (Belgium). 12-13 May 2022.
